In an already struggling market, one might assume that tv manufacturers must be scared stupid that apple is going to do a nokia on them and effectively wipe them out with the upcoming set-top apple tv? According to Broadband TV news, this is not the case, Paul Erickson, a senior analyst at IMS Research, has said that they have already been concentrating on developing next generation tvs that will pre-empt, or at least match, apple's (serious) entrance as a player in the tv market. He claims that the models on show at next year's CES will demonstrate they have nothing to fear.
What is the new battleground then that apple will be fighting over with the traditional tv manufacturers? Few suppose that it will be traditional tv functionality. In fact it's likely that apple will play the very same cards that they played with their introduction of the iPhone. These were: A widescreen iPod with touchscreen controls; a revolutionary mobile phone; and a breakthrough internet communications device.
These can be more generically broken down into: a new user interface; more effectively doing what it already did; and, a breakthrough internet communications device.
I predict that this is precisely what we will see with the new apple tv, though this time the three elements will be even more tightly bound together.
A new user interface: there is no way any serious new tv contender could compete if it does not compete with the x-box, the ps3 and the wii - that means that the apple tv will have to have a virtual user interface, much like the one we saw yeas ago in minority report. The leader here, by a country mile is Microsoft with its kinect interface, so apple will have to at least match or better that. With Siri built in as well no doubt there will be an effective voice control as well. A tv interface such as this would also allow apple to give developers the chance to introduce head-tracking into app games.
More effectively doing what it already did: the tv is essentially an entertainment device, over the years we have added various accessories to make it more entertaining, the VHS recorder, the cable box and the games console being the main ones. It makes sense that all of these should be incorporated into a single device. By baking an operating system into the new apple tv, apple will do this - games developers will develop games directly for the apple tv itself. Studios will be able to by-pass the networks to make films available themselves. A multitude of apps designed especially for your living room will appear once they are given the support of the iTunes ecosystem.
A breakthrough internet communications device: it is frankly bizarre that we do not all already use our tv's to connect to the internet. We can do it. We just don't do it. As apple's iPhone took off - so did mobile internet usage. I expect that the same will happen with the apple tv. Obviously, those elements that we do already use the internet for will remain used and vital, streaming movies, streaming and downloading games and apps, but I wouldn't be surprised to see straight browsing take off too. Whilst Safari's 'reader' functionality will help with text on a more distant screen, the real advantage will be choosing news and other video articles from websites. Eventually, the sites that have such video articles will fully intend them to be viewed on the larger tv screen.
All of these things tv manufacturers can manage. Google tv already has apps and enables internet viewing, (though I should imagine that Google tv owners use it in much the same way as Android users use the internet - i.e. they don't). Sony already has its own rudimentary tracking system in place for the ps3 (perhaps we will all have to wear pom poms on our hats). What they will have to overcome is the manner in which apple brings everything together in one device, and with the support of the iTunes ecosystem.
When the iPhone was released in 2007 Steve Jobs said, "Every once in a while a revolutionary product comes along that changes everything" perhaps next year we will see several. My gut says we will see another iPad scenario, with one revolutionary device and a lot that look like it.
